Findings · Government debt sustainability

How much fiscal risk do people perceive?

The survey separates perceived crisis probability from beliefs about current debt, a sustainable debt ceiling, and remaining fiscal room.

Working paper · August 2026

See survey design

Perceived crisis risk

Average perceived ten-year crisis probability exceeds 40% in every sample.

The average perceived probability of a U.S. debt crisis within ten years is 54.2% among voters, 46.2% among bond investors, and 41.2% among respondents with graduate training in economics or finance.

Source and limitation: sample means and 95% confidence intervals from stated beliefs. The survey defines a crisis as a sudden and severe decline in government-debt value leading to default or very high inflation.

Interactive · Perceived fiscal risk

How risk beliefs differ across samples

Choose a measure. Click any group or timing bar for its exact estimate.

050%100%

Selected groupRegistered voters

Ten-year crisis probability54.2%

Voters report the highest average ten-year crisis probability.

Aggregate sample estimates from the paper. Probability and concern views show means and 95% confidence intervals; timing shows response shares.

Perceived fiscal position

Respondents substantially underestimate current U.S. debt/GDP.

Pre-treatment estimates average 59.6% among voters, 66.1% among bond investors, and 81.1% among respondents with graduate training in economics or finance, versus roughly 100% at the time of the survey.

Source and limitation: all three panels report full-sample means. Headroom is the respondent-level maximum sustainable debt/GDP ratio minus the pre-treatment perceived current ratio; it is not a structural estimate of fiscal capacity.

Interactive · Perceived fiscal position

Respondents disagree about both current debt and remaining room

Select a sample to compare three full-sample measures using the same pre-treatment reference.

Perceived current debt/GDPFull-sample pre-treatment mean

Maximum sustainable debt/GDPFull-sample mean

Perceived fiscal headroomFull-sample mean relative to each respondent’s pre-treatment perception

Selected groupRegistered voters

Perceived current debt/GDP59.6 % of GDP

Maximum sustainable debt/GDP78.2 % of GDP

Perceived fiscal headroom18.6 pp

All three values use the full sample. Mean headroom equals the mean maximum sustainable ratio minus the mean pre-treatment perceived current ratio.

Full-sample means from the working paper. Current debt is measured before treatment. Headroom is each respondent’s maximum sustainable ratio minus that respondent’s pre-treatment perceived current ratio and is not a structural debt-capacity estimate.

Next topic

When do fiscal concerns change portfolios or votes?

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Paper authorsRicardo Delao and Wenhao Li